The Antidote to Uncertainty

Uncertainly rules everything around us.

Political turmoil, rapidly advancing technology, and the collapse of the stage of life formerly known as “retirement” lead the pack among people our age, along with too many other issues to list.

Meanwhile, the two leading desires in the face of our collective anxiety are “start a business” and “leave the country,” which both seem like uncertainty accelerators rather than solutions.

Upon closer examination, though, taking control of your livelihood and location may be the only sane approach compared with being at the mercy of employers and politicians.

More below on uncertainty. And much more on all of the above next year.

Keep going-

Brian Clark

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The Uncertain Path to a Better Life

By Trudi Roth

If there’s anything we’ve learned by now, it’s that change is the only constant.

The good news is that we’re almost at that phase of life where we might finally embrace this truism. Research shows as we age, we stop clinging to our innate negativity bias and gravitate to more positive information, as we know from experience our impending doom is usually exaggerated.

As Mark Twain once noted:

I am an old man and have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened.

Still, it’s challenging to brave the threat of an uncertain future, especially in an increasingly unstable world. Walking a middle path is the only way to get on a sure footing.

Don’t Be So Sure

There are lots of reasons why we’re intolerant of uncertainty. First off, it activates the fight-flight-freeze-please response, releasing stress chemistry like cortisol. Unchecked, it can further erode your resilience by causing insomnia, anxiety, and other stress-related issues, resulting in an uncertainty aversion.

Secondly, it creates an existential quandary. According to happiness expert Arthur C. Brooks, the fear of an uncertain future can be paralyzing:

We all seek opportunity and abundance, but these things inevitably come with uncertainty and risk, which we hate. It seems that we must choose between the terror that comes from an adventurous high life and the boredom that attends the safety and predictability of a more modest way of being.

If you accept that life is a black-and-white choice of risk vs. safety, Brooks says you’re buying into a false paradox. Instead, he advises managing your uncertainty aversion vs. trying to ignore or eliminate it.

A Certain Approach

Ultimately, the problem with unpredictability is the emotional distress it causes. Once you know what you’re dealing with, it diffuses discomfort. So, Brooks advises tackling uncertainty through “metacognition,” or thinking about how you think.

This requires you to find an external frame of reference to structure the way you see your uncertain circumstances. Structuring your thinking like this does not require a Ph.D. in statistics. It starts by simply laying out in a schematic way the uncertainty in a situation you’re facing.

That sounds fancy, but assessing a new direction is as simple as listing costs (actual and perceived) and benefits. The goal is to be as realistic and analytical as possible, resisting the urge to go with your gut or let emotion cloud your vision.

The beauty of that list is that it takes the uncertainty out of the equation. Not that it tells you what the “right” decision is — but it fills you with a sense of certainty that you’re making the best decision at the time, calming anxiety and supporting a sense of peace. And that’s surely what you want, isn’t it?

​The Secret to Thinking Your Way Out of Anxiety​​ (The Atlantic gift article)